United States

1) The Core

• Strategic Archetype: Systemic Hegemon under strain.
• Civilizational Trajectory: Still dominant, but entering relative decline.
• Key Driver: Preservation of liberal order leadership and technological primacy.

2) The Power Map (Clan System)

• Political-Democratic Bloc: Elected leaders, Congress, White House cycles.
• Security-Deep State Bloc: Pentagon, CIA, NSA — bipartisan continuity.
• Financial-Tech Bloc: Wall Street + Silicon Valley.
• Cultural Bloc: Media/academic networks shaping global narrative.
• Regional Polarization: Red/Blue divide (domestic clan fracture).

3) The Worldview (NAT & Strategic Posture)

• Natural Allies: UK, Canada, Australia, NATO core.
• Situational Allies: India, Japan.
• Transactional Allies: Gulf states, Israel.
• Neutral Negative: Brazil, Turkey.
• Systemic Rival: China.
• Enemies: North Korea, Iran.
• Existential Enemies: None.
• Grand Strategic Goal: Sustain US-led liberal order, prevent peer competitor (China) from overtaking.

GS Lens: The USA operates from a messianic self-image of exceptionalism, fueling a geopsychology of “missionary liberalism.” Its passionarity lies in belief in system universality, often blinding elites to limits.

4) The Fault Lines (Watchlist)

• Polarization: domestic legitimacy crisis.
• Fiscal strain: rising debt.
• Tech competition: AI, semiconductors, space race.
• Strategic overreach: sustaining global commitments vs. domestic appetite.

Primary Internal Risk: Domestic fracture undermining elite consensus.
Primary External Risk: China’s rise + alliance drift.
Black Swan: Populist isolationism leading to sudden US withdrawal from global leadership.

5) The Long View

• 100-Year Forecast: The US remains a global pole but no longer uncontested.
• Rationale: Scale, innovation, and alliances guarantee resilience, but long-term overextension and domestic division erode singular hegemony.