1) The Core

• Strategic Archetype: Revanchist-Irredentist Power.
• Civilizational Trajectory: Determined to entrench itself as one of the poles in a multipolar world.
• Key Driver: Preservation of regime and projection of Russia as a civilizational core state whose sphere must be respected.

2) The Power Map (Clan System)

Operating Logic: Russia is ruled through broad coalitions rather than neat hierarchies. Putin sits as arbiter, balancing clans through selective favors, prosecutions, and rent distribution. Some blocs are anchored by personalities; others are functional ecosystems.

• Siloviki Coalition (Security Core)
  • Composition: Security services (FSB, SVR, GRU), Investigative Committee, Security Council ideologues.
  • Anchor figures: Patrushev (ideological guard), Bortnikov (FSB), Bastrykin (judiciary coercion).
  • Function: Provide coercion, ideological framing, and succession control.
• Technocrat Coalition (“MiSh” Bloc)
  • Composition: Civil service reformers, fiscal managers, digital administrators.
  • Anchor figures: Mishustin (PM), Grigorenko (government machine), Shadaev (digital), Nabiullina (Central Bank).
  • Function: Keep the economy running under sanctions, digitize governance, maintain budget solvency.
• Sechin Bloc (Oil Imperium)
  • Composition: Rosneft empire and allied rent-seekers.
  • Anchor: Igor Sechin.
  • Function: Control upstream oil, provide fiscal lifeblood, foreign energy diplomacy.
• Kovalchuk–Rotenberg Network (Inner Business Circle)
  • Composition: Long-time Petersburg friends of Putin.
  • Anchors: Yury Kovalchuk, Arkady & Boris Rotenberg.
  • Function: Banking, media, infrastructure megaprojects, strategic industries (incl. space, VK ecosystem).
• Medvedev / Legalist Bloc
  • Composition: Former legal cadres, regional envoys, prosecutorial appointments.
  • Anchor: Dmitry Medvedev, with channels like Yury Chaika and Alexander Gutsan.
  • Function: Maintain legal-bureaucratic influence, provide balance in cadre rotations.
• Industrial & Regional Satellites
  • Rostec (Chemezov) and sectoral utilities (RusHydro, coal, metallurgy) operate as dependency nodes, trading subsidies for loyalty.
  • Regional satraps (e.g., Kadyrov, frontier governors) enforce Kremlin control in exchange for protection and federal cash.

3) The Worldview (NAT & Strategic Posture)

• Natural Allies: China, North Korea, Iran.
• Situational Allies: India, Brazil.
• Transactional Allies: Central Asian republics.
• Neutral Positive: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Vietnam.
• Neutral Negative: Israel, Austria, Argentina
• Systemic Rival: USA.
• Enemies: Japan, Azerbaijan, France, Germany.
• Existential Enemies: Baltic states, Poland, Scandinavia, UK.
• Grand Strategic Goal: Force recognition of Russia as a sovereign pole in a multipolar order; secure buffer zones and prevent absorption into Western institutions.

GS Lens: Russia acts from a fortress mentality rooted in historical trauma (Mongol yoke, Napoleonic invasion, WWII, 1990s collapse). Passionarity expresses through civilizational revanchism and irredentism, producing resilience but also escalation beyond material logic.

4) The Fault Lines (Watchlist)

12-Month Watchpoints:

• Succession choreography (Patrushev Jr. elevation, Security Council reshuffles).
• War-industry bottlenecks vs. battlefield needs.
• Energy cashflow shocks (shipping/insurance choke points).
• Strains in RMB settlement or China dual-use supplies.
• Domestic unrest indicators (delayed wages, mobilization fatigue).

Primary Internal Risk: Elite fracture under resource scarcity. The patronage system depends on cashflow; a fiscal or oil shock could pit clans against each other.

Primary External Risk: Tech/finance chokepoints tighten. Coordinated Western sanctions on oil + dual-use imports could hollow the war economy within 12–18 months.

Black Swan Watch: A sudden, uncontested transition where a hardline silovik faction seizes power, leading to unpredictable escalation.

5) The Long View (Existential Outlook)

• 100-Year Forecast: Russia will endure as a civilizational state, but with fluctuating borders and deepened dependency on Asian corridors.
• Rationale: A strong identity and coercive depth ensure state survival; but demographics, technology gaps, and sanction-era re-wiring limit sovereign freedom, pushing Russia into asymmetric partnerships.