The regular quarterly outlook was not published at the start of the year. The pace and density of developments in Q1 made a standard forward-looking brief inadequate. This Special Edition addresses the structural shifts already underway across five key theatres. I. Latin America: The Dollar Cage The rightward shift across
As 2025 draws to a close, it is worth stepping back from individual crises and looking at the geopolitical map as a whole. What emerges is not chaos, but a new pattern. The old certainties are weakening, yet the world is not dissolving into disorder. Instead, power is reorganising itself
Ukraine–Russia: The Winter Signature The Call: The war's active phase ends by February 2026. Major bombing of cities and infrastructure concludes, replaced by sporadic violence along a frozen line of control. Russia secures all of Donbas. Probability: 75%. The Rationale: The war persists not because Ukraine can
The Flashpoint Trump files $1 billion lawsuit as BBC leadership collapses within 48 hours. Director-General Davie and Head of News Turness resign over systematic editorial fraud. Not budget cuts or ratings, but documented manipulation. This was definitive proof of a long-whispered truth: the BBC's editorial process wasn'
Venezuela: The Strike Window Bottom Line Up Top Targeted assassination of Nicolás Maduro (Hezbollah/Hamas-style strike): 25% probability in the November-January window. Limited kinetic incident in the Guyana-Essequibo region: 35% probability. Full-scale invasion remains unlikely at 15%. The Stakes Venezuela claims the Essequibo region—two-thirds of Guyana's territory—
The Flashpoint Javier Milei secures a surprise second mandate, defying polls that predicted a Peronist comeback. With inflation at 180% and net reserves deep in negative territory, voters chose radical rupture over managed decay. The victory, amplified by Trump’s overt endorsement, transforms Argentina into a live-fire experiment in shock