I. Hungary: The System Holds Hungary goes to the polls on 12 April in what is being described, with customary European self-importance, as a democratic turning point. It is nothing of the sort. It is a contest between a system that intends to survive and an opposition that has, belatedly,
The regular quarterly outlook was not published at the start of the year. The pace and density of developments in Q1 made a standard forward-looking brief inadequate. This Special Edition addresses the structural shifts already underway across five key theatres. I. Latin America: The Dollar Cage The rightward shift across
As 2025 draws to a close, it is worth stepping back from individual crises and looking at the geopolitical map as a whole. What emerges is not chaos, but a new pattern. The old certainties are weakening, yet the world is not dissolving into disorder. Instead, power is reorganising itself
Ukraine–Russia: The Winter Signature The Call: The war's active phase ends by February 2026. Major bombing of cities and infrastructure concludes, replaced by sporadic violence along a frozen line of control. Russia secures all of Donbas. Probability: 75%. The Rationale: The war persists not because Ukraine can
The Flashpoint Trump files $1 billion lawsuit as BBC leadership collapses within 48 hours. Director-General Davie and Head of News Turness resign over systematic editorial fraud. Not budget cuts or ratings, but documented manipulation. This was definitive proof of a long-whispered truth: the BBC's editorial process wasn'
Venezuela: The Strike Window Bottom Line Up Top Targeted assassination of Nicolás Maduro (Hezbollah/Hamas-style strike): 25% probability in the November-January window. Limited kinetic incident in the Guyana-Essequibo region: 35% probability. Full-scale invasion remains unlikely at 15%. The Stakes Venezuela claims the Essequibo region—two-thirds of Guyana's territory—