I. Hungary: The System Holds Hungary goes to the polls on 12 April in what is being described, with customary European self-importance, as a democratic turning point. It is nothing of the sort. It is a contest between a system that intends to survive and an opposition that has, belatedly,
The regular quarterly outlook was not published at the start of the year. The pace and density of developments in Q1 made a standard forward-looking brief inadequate. This Special Edition addresses the structural shifts already underway across five key theatres. I. Latin America: The Dollar Cage The rightward shift across
Ukraine–Russia: The Winter Signature The Call: The war's active phase ends by February 2026. Major bombing of cities and infrastructure concludes, replaced by sporadic violence along a frozen line of control. Russia secures all of Donbas. Probability: 75%. The Rationale: The war persists not because Ukraine can
Venezuela: The Strike Window Bottom Line Up Top Targeted assassination of Nicolás Maduro (Hezbollah/Hamas-style strike): 25% probability in the November-January window. Limited kinetic incident in the Guyana-Essequibo region: 35% probability. Full-scale invasion remains unlikely at 15%. The Stakes Venezuela claims the Essequibo region—two-thirds of Guyana's territory—
The Flashpoint Javier Milei secures a surprise second mandate, defying polls that predicted a Peronist comeback. With inflation at 180% and net reserves deep in negative territory, voters chose radical rupture over managed decay. The victory, amplified by Trump’s overt endorsement, transforms Argentina into a live-fire experiment in shock
Issued: 20 October 2025 The Flashpoint The Durand Line ignites once more. Pakistani F-16s strike Kunar Province posts on 18 October; Taliban fighters answer with 107mm rockets. A Qatar-brokered truce lies in tatters. This is not mere border friction—it is the unmasking of a deeper war over identity and