CPD: Twenty Twenty Nine
History rarely ends with bangs; it ends with hinges.
Not a single moment, but several pivot points grinding together until the weight of an old order collapses and something new takes its place. For our century, one such hinge comes in 2029.
The stage is not set by battles in the Donbas or the Taiwan Strait, but by ballots in Berlin, Paris, London, and Rome. Europe’s elections will not decide the wars to come, but they will determine their timing. When governments shift, so do supply lines, commitments, and appetites for sacrifice. And Russia and China, each with their own maps of unfinished history, will know when the hour is ripe.
This is not collapse. It is crystallisation. The world that emerges in 2029 will not be one global marketplace, but a set of civilizational blocs — distinct, fortified, and unyielding.
The European Hinge
By 2029, Europe’s old consensus will be fractured.
In Britain, Reform UK threatens to eclipse both Labour and the Conservatives, leaving the two great post-war parties as fossils. A supermajority is possible. Such an outcome would be more than an election; it would be the burial of the political settlement that has defined Britain for seventy years. And with Reform comes a policy line of sovereignty, border walls, and distance from foreign entanglements.
Germany will see the AfD claim the largest share of the Bundestag. It may not yet command an outright majority, but the taboo of 1945 will be broken. A nationalist party, once relegated to the margins, will sit at the centre.
In Italy, the Brothers of Italy provide accompaniment, but Giorgia Meloni plays the lead. By 2029 she is entrenched, shaping not only Rome but Brussels itself.
France is the pivot. If Marine Le Pen captures the Élysée in 2027, the European dominoes fall faster. If she falls short, the election of 2029 will test whether the tide can still be resisted. In either case, the direction of travel is unmistakable.
And beyond Europe, another constant: India. Its election in 2028, whether won by BJP or Congress, alters little. Strategic autonomy remains doctrine. Delhi buys oil from Russia when cheap, maintains ties with the Quad, and avoids entanglement in sanctions. In a world of fractures, India is stillness itself.
These political shifts matter not as curiosities but as preconditions. Governments less inclined to arm Ukraine without limit, less inclined to sanction China, create a strategic opening. And both Moscow and Beijing are patient students of European mood.
Russia: The Heartland Logic
For Russia, Ukraine is not foreign land but the heart of its story. Its rivers, cities, and soil are bound to Russia’s self-conception as England is to its shires. Moscow frames it not as expansion but restoration.
The strategy is clear. First the Donbas, consolidated. Then the south — Odesa and Mykolaiv. With those ports, Ukraine loses the Black Sea. Russia gains a fortress stretching to Crimea. And from there, Transnistria becomes a bridge, Moldova a possible candidate for re-integration.
Timing is everything. To act while Europe is united and pouring arms into Ukraine would be folly. To act once nationalist governments take office, softening Europe’s resolve, is another matter. The assault begins not in 2024, not in 2026, but in 2029, when the hinge turns.
China: The Unfinished Civil War
In Beijing’s worldview, Taiwan is not an “other” but an unfinished chapter of 1949. The decades of patience have not been idle. Carriers now steam in squadrons, missile fields stretch across coastal provinces, cyber arsenals wait in silence. By 2029–30, these preparations reach maturity.
The United States, led by a president pledged to America First, will signal loudly but act faintly. A Europe fragmented by its own political earthquakes will offer little more. Beijing will not wait for consent. The question held in suspension for decades will be forced to decision.
The Great Migration Returns
Behind the politics lies a deeper tide. Migration in the late 2020s will rival the movements that once ended Rome and reshaped medieval Europe. From Sahel to Levant, from Central Asia to Latin America, millions move — not from hope, but from despair. They no longer believe their homelands offer a future. Often, they are right.
States that receive them strain to cope. Borders harden into walls. Elections are fought and won on the question of who belongs and who does not. And nationalist victories are not random outbursts; they are responses to pressures as old as history itself. Once great migrations begin, they rarely stop until new balances are formed.
The Artificial Mind
Another current reinforces the change. Artificial intelligence integrates into every process. Costs fall, efficiency soars, profits rise. But so too does unemployment.
Millions of jobs are eroded in industries thought immune. White-collar and blue-collar alike. For elites, the temptation is obvious: machines do not strike or demand. For societies, the pressure is immense. Resentment feeds populism. Stability fractures. In weaker states, unrest is inevitable. In stronger ones, division deepens. Few powers have prepared for this.
Toward Multipolarity
By the close of 2029, these arcs converge. Europe remade by nationalist politics. Russia securing its Black Sea arc. China pressing Taiwan. America retreating inward. Migration reshaping societies. Artificial intelligence unsettling economies.
Globalization does not end in a single explosion; it ends in crystallisation. Finance and energy flow through BRICS clearinghouses. Oil trades in yuan and rubles. Technology ecosystems fracture: American apps, Chinese apps, Russian apps — each within its own firewalls. Proxy wars ignite in Africa and the Middle East, extensions of larger struggles.
This is not collapse, but the consolidation of a multipolar world. France’s 2027 election will be remembered as the signal. 2029 will be the hinge.
Edict from the Chief Praetor
And so, 2029 approaches. Some will say it is chaos; it is not. It is the order of history, working in its own rhythm. Rome fell not when it was sacked, but when migrations made its walls meaningless. Empires crumble not from weakness, but from inevitability.
One cannot say when these arcs will end, only when they are likely to begin. And in 2029, they will begin.
The Chief Praetor muses: “History does not wait for permission. It arrives when the hinge turns. And in 2029, it will turn. Best to have your affairs in order before breakfast.”