December 2025
Ukraine–Russia: The Winter Signature
The Call: The war's active phase ends by February 2026. Major bombing of cities and infrastructure concludes, replaced by sporadic violence along a frozen line of control. Russia secures all of Donbas. Probability: 75%.
The Rationale: The war persists not because Ukraine can win, but because ending it destroys Zelensky politically. A peacetime Ukraine holds elections, he loses catastrophically. The country lost the war. It sacrificed hundreds of thousands. Its infrastructure is destroyed. It faces no NATO or EU membership. The anger will have one target: him. The corruption scandals around his inner circle, particularly Yermak and Mindich, compound the betrayal.
The material collapse forces the endgame. The front line is crumbling. Foreign reserves are exhausted. Western aid pipelines end in January. If Russia destroys the remaining energy grid this winter, millions of refugees would flee west. The U.S. administration seeks to provide the diplomatic mechanism Trump craves: a deal. Putin cannot squander this golden opportunity and he knows it.
With Yermak gone and Zelensky's support system disintegrating, he should become more pliable. The only thing that matters to him now is his personal safety and the safety of his family. Potential destinations: UK or Israel. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are in Moscow tomorrow meeting Putin to present the revised U.S. peace framework. By curious coincidence, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will also be in Moscow at precisely the same time, holding "strategic security consultations" with Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu. The timing suggests Moscow is ensuring Beijing's alignment before finalising terms, which is important for both parties. After the loss of the European market, Russia needs China more than ever (sanctions circumvention, tech transfers, oil/gas purchases), and China sees Russia as an indispensable ally it cannot do without in the Cold War 2.0.
Trajectory: The ceasefire would involve complete Russian control of Donbas, formal Ukrainian neutrality ending NATO prospects, and de jure recognition of the Russian control over these territories. Expect negotiations announced between December 20 and January 20.
Watchpoint: Russian language officialdom and the Russian Orthodox Church right to exist (with its properties protected from seizure) are also non-negotiable from Moscow's perspective. These cultural clauses keep Ukraine tethered to Moscow spiritually and mentally and matter as much as territorial concessions. If these provisions are not granted now (and we doubt they will be in any Western-brokered deal), the war restarts by 2029. Without them, Russia views any ceasefire as temporary. Any leaked framework lacking these provisions signals a deal that won't hold.
India–Russia: The New Anchor?
The Call: The December 4-5 Delhi summit moves India and Russia from Transactional Partners decisively toward Natural Allies. India cannot complete the transition as it continues to juggle the U.S. relationship but the trajectory is unmistakable and structural.
The Rationale: India has no real allies. The last 24 months proved it conclusively. When India faced U.S. pressure over Pakistan, Washington offered lukewarm support and nearly sided with Islamabad. China backed Pakistan. The Quad (Japan, Australia) offers situational posturing, not treaty obligations. The EU talks trade but conditions every agreement on "shared values" that translate to lectures on human rights and climate commitments. Russia is the only great power that delivers without ideological demands: affordable energy, advanced defense technology, and diplomatic cover.
This summit formalizes what sanctions forced into existence: mutual dependence. Russia needs India as its alternative supply chain for Western goods (machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals replacing European imports). India needs Russia as its only reliable defense partner and energy guarantor. The relationship has moved beyond oil purchases. Russia is now discussing labor mobility agreements to address its demographic collapse with Indian workers. India is negotiating a free trade agreement with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, plugging into an entire economic bloc outside Western architecture.
The defense relationship crosses the threshold from client-supplier to co-development partner. Discussions include joint production of air-defense systems, and crucially, Su-57 fifth-generation fighters. India is not buying Russian equipment anymore. It is becoming integrated into Russia's defense industrial base. This is the deepest form of strategic partnership: co-dependence in production, not just procurement.
The rupee surplus problem (Russia holds $40+ billion in Indian accounts with limited deployment options) remains unresolved, but the summit addresses it through equity access and infrastructure investment pathways. If Moscow gets clearance to deploy rupees into Indian markets, the financial integration becomes structural and irreversible.
India cannot go "all in" with Russia. Too many expats send remittances from the U.S., and India still needs American technology and market access. Delhi buys cheap oil and maintains neutrality; it does not supply weapons or provide diplomatic cover at the UN. India knows one thing for sure: Russia is the only power that has never abandoned India. 1971. Kargil. Post-1998 sanctions. Russia showed up.
Trajectory: Watch for three outcomes. First, announcements on India-Eurasian Economic Union free trade negotiations signal India's structural pivot toward the Russia-led bloc. Second, defense co-development agreements (not just purchases) on Su-57 or air defense systems confirm the relationship has crossed into strategic co-dependence. Third, joint statement language upgrading from "strategic partnership" to "strategic alliance" signals Delhi's fundamental realignment.
Watchpoint: If India's Russian oil imports remain above 40% post-summit despite U.S. tariffs, Delhi is signaling defiance. More critically, watch for labor mobility agreements or announcements on deploying Russia's rupee surplus into Indian equity markets. These signal irreversible integration.